Modelling Earthquakes in Western Canada Using the Monte Carlo Method
Vansdon Ching, Ray Teng
Prince of Wales Secondary
Floor Location : M 078 V

As parts of the West Coast of Canada resides on the ring of fire, which is a nearly continuous series of oceanic trenches where many major plates join, West coast Canadians are constantly at the risk of earthquakes that are magnitude 5 or greater.

With the hopes of a better understanding on the probabilities and frequencies of earthquakes, and to familiarize ourselves with the risks we face, we developed an earthquake simulator based on a Monte Carlo method which uses historical data to operate.

We made our simulator by applying a best fit equation to the historical data we gathered. Following that, we perfected the value of alpha of the graph and added weights to the algorithm in order to better represent the probabilities of earthquakes from various magnitudes.

In our earthquake simulation we applied and perfected a best fit equation of an exponential graph to the historical data of earthquakes from 2018 to 2019 and inverted the equation so that we could get accurate earthquake simulation results using a Monte Carlo model, which is based both on the fit factor, and an optimized magnitude-related weighting.

It is hoped that this study will be able to let us model the probability of magnitude 5 or greater earthquakes in western Canada using the Monte Carlo method.